Should I Start Michael Penix or Tyson Bagent in Week 4?
Michael Penix is projected for 14.3 points, 25th among quarterbacks this week. Most weeks he lands between 4.6 and 25.8. This week he plays at NO; the game total is 47.5 and his team is a 2.5-point underdog. The number is built from live market data across 16 books, in half-PPR scoring, and the lines have moved since they opened. How it adds up: 224.3 passing yards (+9.0), 1.4 passing touchdowns (+5.5), 0.7 interceptions (−1.3), 0.1 touchdowns (+0.6), 5.5 rushing yards (+0.6). Last week (Week 3) he was projected for 11.3 points and scored 12.0.
Tyson Bagent is projected for 14.7 points, 23rd among quarterbacks this week. Most weeks he lands between 5.8 and 25.6. This week he plays vs NYJ; the game total is 43.0 and his team is favored by 3.3. The number is built from live market data across 16 books, in half-PPR scoring, and the lines have moved since they opened. How it adds up: 199.5 passing yards (+8.0), 1.4 passing touchdowns (+5.7), 14.0 rushing yards (+1.4), 0.7 interceptions (−1.3), 0.2 touchdowns (+0.9). Last week (Week 3) he was projected for 1.6 points and did not play.
It is close to a coin flip. He projects for 14.7 points this week against 14.3 for Michael Penix. His chance of outscoring Michael Penix is 49%. Their ranges overlap — Tyson Bagent usually lands between 5.8 and 25.6, Michael Penix between 4.6 and 25.8 — so either can win the week.
| Week 4 | Bagent | Penix |
|---|---|---|
| Projection | 14.7 | 14.3 |
| Floor · ceiling | 5.8 · 25.6 | 4.6 · 25.8 |
| Rank at position | 23rd | 25th |
| Status | Healthy | Healthy |
Market data last pulled Friday, October 2 at 6:21 AM PDT. Lines refresh every 15 minutes through kickoff.