Should I Start Michael Penix Jr. or Patrick Mahomes in Week 7?

Michael Penix Jr. is projected for 14.4 points. Most weeks he lands between 4.9 and 23.3. This week he plays at TB; the game total is 46.5 and his team is a 2.0-point underdog. The number is built from live market data across 2 books, with the stats no book prices filled in from his role and Sleeper’s numbers, in half-PPR scoring, and has held steady since the lines opened. How it adds up: 226.6 passing yards (+9.1), 1.4 passing touchdowns (+5.4), 0.5 interceptions (−1.0), 0.1 touchdowns (+0.7), 3.4 rushing yards (+0.3). Last week (Week 6) he was projected for 14.2 points and scored 21.1.

Patrick Mahomes is projected for 15.9 points. Most weeks he lands between 6.0 and 25.2. This week he plays at DEN; the game total is 41.0 and his team is favored by 1.5. The number is built from live market data across 2 books, with the stats no book prices filled in from his role and Sleeper’s numbers, in half-PPR scoring, and has held steady since the lines opened. How it adds up: 224.6 passing yards (+9.0), 1.2 passing touchdowns (+4.9), 18.2 rushing yards (+1.8), 0.2 touchdowns (+1.0), 0.4 interceptions (−0.8). Last week (Week 6) he was projected for 15.9 points and scored 10.5.

Patrick Mahomes is the slight lean. He projects for 15.9 points this week against 14.4 for Michael Penix Jr.. His chance of outscoring Michael Penix Jr. is 57%. Their ranges overlap — Patrick Mahomes usually lands between 6.0 and 25.2, Michael Penix Jr. between 4.9 and 23.3 — so either can win the week.

Market data last pulled Monday, October 26 at 8:40 PM PDT. Lines refresh every 15 minutes through kickoff.