Should I Start Michael Mayer or Zach Ertz in Week 4?

Michael Mayer is projected for 4.2 points. Most weeks he lands between 1.1 and 8.6. This week he plays at NE; the game total is 45.0 and his team is a 3.5-point underdog. The number is built from live market data across 5 books, with the stats no book prices filled in from his role and Sleeper’s numbers, in half-PPR scoring, and has held steady since the lines opened. How it adds up: 20.1 receiving yards (+2.0), 2.4 catches (+1.2), 0.2 touchdowns (+1.0). Last week (Week 3) he was projected for 3.4 points and scored 10.7.

Zach Ertz is projected for 3.5 points. Most weeks he lands between 0.0 and 7.5. This week he plays at JAX; the game total is 42.5 and his team is a 6.5-point underdog. The number is built from live market data across 10 books, with the stats no book prices filled in from his role and Sleeper’s numbers, in half-PPR scoring, and has held steady since the lines opened. How it adds up: 0.3 touchdowns (+1.7), 11.6 receiving yards (+1.2), 1.2 catches (+0.6). Last week (Week 3) he was projected for 1.7 points and did not play.

Michael Mayer is the slight lean. He projects for 4.2 points this week against 3.5 for Zach Ertz. His chance of outscoring Zach Ertz is 68%. Their ranges overlap — Michael Mayer usually lands between 1.1 and 8.6, Zach Ertz between 0.0 and 7.5 — so either can win the week.

Market data last pulled Monday, October 5 at 7:21 PM PDT. Lines refresh every 15 minutes through kickoff.