Should I Start Keaton Mitchell or Zach Ertz in Week 4?

Keaton Mitchell is projected for 8.3 points. Most weeks he lands between 2.3 and 14.6. This week he plays vs DEN; the game total is 42.5 and his team is a 3.5-point underdog. The number is built from live market data across 1 book, with the stats no book prices filled in from his role and Sleeper’s numbers, in half-PPR scoring, and has held steady since the lines opened. How it adds up: 45.6 rushing yards (+4.6), 0.3 touchdowns (+1.7), 10.8 receiving yards (+1.1), 1.8 catches (+0.9). Last week (Week 3) he was projected for 2.5 points and scored 12.2.

Zach Ertz is projected for 3.5 points. Most weeks he lands between 0.0 and 7.5. This week he plays at JAX; the game total is 42.5 and his team is a 6.5-point underdog. The number is built from live market data across 10 books, with the stats no book prices filled in from his role and Sleeper’s numbers, in half-PPR scoring, and has held steady since the lines opened. How it adds up: 0.3 touchdowns (+1.7), 11.6 receiving yards (+1.2), 1.2 catches (+0.6). Last week (Week 3) he was projected for 1.7 points and did not play.

Keaton Mitchell is the lean. He projects for 8.3 points this week against 3.5 for Zach Ertz. His chance of outscoring Zach Ertz is 81%. Their ranges overlap — Keaton Mitchell usually lands between 2.3 and 14.6, Zach Ertz between 0.0 and 7.5 — so either can win the week.

Market data last pulled Monday, October 5 at 7:21 PM PDT. Lines refresh every 15 minutes through kickoff.