Should I Start Justin Herbert or Tyson Bagent in Week 4?

Justin Herbert is projected for 14.0 points, 27th among quarterbacks this week. Most weeks he lands between 5.4 and 23.2. This week he plays at SEA; the game total is 42.5 and his team is a 7.0-point underdog. The number is built from live market data across 17 books, in half-PPR scoring, and the lines have moved since they opened. How it adds up: 199.5 passing yards (+8.0), 1.1 passing touchdowns (+4.5), 21.2 rushing yards (+2.1), 0.8 interceptions (−1.5), 0.2 touchdowns (+0.9). Last week (Week 3) he was projected for 15.1 points and scored 12.7.

Tyson Bagent is projected for 14.7 points, 23rd among quarterbacks this week. Most weeks he lands between 5.8 and 25.6. This week he plays vs NYJ; the game total is 43.0 and his team is favored by 3.5. The number is built from live market data across 16 books, in half-PPR scoring, and the lines have moved since they opened. How it adds up: 199.5 passing yards (+8.0), 1.4 passing touchdowns (+5.7), 14.0 rushing yards (+1.4), 0.7 interceptions (−1.3), 0.2 touchdowns (+0.9). Last week (Week 3) he was projected for 1.6 points and did not play.

Tyson Bagent is the slight lean. He projects for 14.7 points this week against 14.0 for Justin Herbert. His chance of outscoring Justin Herbert is 50%. Their ranges overlap — Tyson Bagent usually lands between 5.8 and 25.6, Justin Herbert between 5.4 and 23.2 — so either can win the week.

Market data last pulled Friday, October 2 at 5:21 AM PDT. Lines refresh every 15 minutes through kickoff.