Should I Start Jameis Winston or Malik Willis in Week 4?

Jameis Winston is projected for 12.4 points, 32nd among quarterbacks this week. Most weeks he lands between 2.9 and 24.1. This week he plays vs ARI; the game total is 44.5 and his team is a 2.5-point underdog. The number is built from live market data across 17 books, in half-PPR scoring, and the lines have moved since they opened. How it adds up: 205.5 passing yards (+8.2), 1.2 passing touchdowns (+4.9), 0.9 interceptions (−1.7), 0.1 touchdowns (+0.5), 4.5 rushing yards (+0.5). Last week (Week 3) he was projected for 11.1 points and scored 6.1.

Malik Willis is projected for 11.5 points, 33rd among quarterbacks this week. Most weeks he lands between 4.4 and 19.7. This week he plays at MIN; the game total is 38.5 and his team is a 10.5-point underdog. The number is built from live market data across 16 books, in half-PPR scoring, and the lines have moved since they opened. How it adds up: 169.5 passing yards (+6.8), 28.5 rushing yards (+2.9), 0.6 passing touchdowns (+2.6), 0.9 interceptions (−1.8), 0.2 touchdowns (+1.1). Last week (Week 3) he was projected for 14.0 points and scored 12.0.

Jameis Winston is the slight lean. He projects for 12.4 points this week against 11.5 for Malik Willis. His chance of outscoring Malik Willis is 52%. Their ranges overlap — Jameis Winston usually lands between 2.9 and 24.1, Malik Willis between 4.4 and 19.7 — so either can win the week.

Market data last pulled Friday, October 2 at 6:21 AM PDT. Lines refresh every 15 minutes through kickoff.