Should I Start Jalen Hurts or Tyson Bagent in Week 4?

Jalen Hurts is projected for 15.8 points, 19th among quarterbacks this week. Most weeks he lands between 6.5 and 26.1. This week he plays vs LAR; the game total is 43.0 and his team is a 3.5-point underdog. The number is built from live market data across 17 books, in half-PPR scoring, and the lines have moved since they opened. How it adds up: 187.5 passing yards (+7.5), 1.1 passing touchdowns (+4.5), 25.5 rushing yards (+2.6), 0.4 touchdowns (+2.5), 0.7 interceptions (−1.3). Last week (Week 3) he was projected for 17.7 points and did not play.

Tyson Bagent is projected for 14.7 points, 23rd among quarterbacks this week. Most weeks he lands between 5.8 and 25.6. This week he plays vs NYJ; the game total is 43.0 and his team is favored by 3.3. The number is built from live market data across 16 books, in half-PPR scoring, and the lines have moved since they opened. How it adds up: 199.5 passing yards (+8.0), 1.4 passing touchdowns (+5.7), 14.0 rushing yards (+1.4), 0.7 interceptions (−1.3), 0.2 touchdowns (+0.9). Last week (Week 3) he was projected for 1.6 points and did not play.

Jalen Hurts is the slight lean. He projects for 15.8 points this week against 14.7 for Tyson Bagent. His chance of outscoring Tyson Bagent is 54%. Their ranges overlap — Jalen Hurts usually lands between 6.5 and 26.1, Tyson Bagent between 5.8 and 25.6 — so either can win the week.

Market data last pulled Friday, October 2 at 6:21 AM PDT. Lines refresh every 15 minutes through kickoff.