Should I Start Jake Ferguson or Michael Mayer in Week 7?

Jake Ferguson is projected for 7.2 points. Most weeks he lands between 1.7 and 13.1. This week he plays vs ARI; the game total is 53.5 and his team is favored by 6.5. The number is built from live market data across 1 book, with the stats no book prices filled in from his role and Sleeper’s numbers, in half-PPR scoring, and has held steady since the lines opened. How it adds up: 34.4 receiving yards (+3.4), 0.3 touchdowns (+2.0), 3.5 catches (+1.8). Last week (Week 6) he was projected for 4.5 points and scored 2.3.

Michael Mayer is projected for 5.9 points. Most weeks he lands between 1.6 and 10.5. This week he plays at NYJ; the game total is 45.5 and his team is a 0.5-point underdog. The number is built from live market data across 2 books, with the stats no book prices filled in from his role and Sleeper’s numbers, in half-PPR scoring, and has held steady since the lines opened. How it adds up: 30.4 receiving yards (+3.0), 3.4 catches (+1.7), 0.2 touchdowns (+1.2). Last week (Week 6) he was projected for 4.5 points and scored 13.0.

Jake Ferguson is the slight lean. He projects for 7.2 points this week against 5.9 for Michael Mayer. His chance of outscoring Michael Mayer is 56%. Their ranges overlap — Jake Ferguson usually lands between 1.7 and 13.1, Michael Mayer between 1.6 and 10.5 — so either can win the week.

Market data last pulled Monday, October 26 at 8:40 PM PDT. Lines refresh every 15 minutes through kickoff.