Should I Start Geno Smith or Tyson Bagent in Week 4?
Geno Smith is projected for 14.3 points, 26th among quarterbacks this week. Most weeks he lands between 6.0 and 22.7. This week he plays at CHI; the game total is 43.0 and his team is a 3.3-point underdog. The number is built from live market data across 16 books, in half-PPR scoring, and the lines have moved since they opened. How it adds up: 227.5 passing yards (+9.1), 1.3 passing touchdowns (+5.0), 0.8 interceptions (−1.6), 11.5 rushing yards (+1.2), 0.1 touchdowns (+0.6). Last week (Week 3) he was projected for 13.9 points and scored 26.0.
Tyson Bagent is projected for 14.7 points, 23rd among quarterbacks this week. Most weeks he lands between 5.8 and 25.6. This week he plays vs NYJ; the game total is 43.0 and his team is favored by 3.3. The number is built from live market data across 16 books, in half-PPR scoring, and the lines have moved since they opened. How it adds up: 199.5 passing yards (+8.0), 1.4 passing touchdowns (+5.7), 14.0 rushing yards (+1.4), 0.7 interceptions (−1.3), 0.2 touchdowns (+0.9). Last week (Week 3) he was projected for 1.6 points and did not play.
It is close to a coin flip. He projects for 14.7 points this week against 14.3 for Geno Smith. His chance of outscoring Geno Smith is 50%. Their ranges overlap — Tyson Bagent usually lands between 5.8 and 25.6, Geno Smith between 6.0 and 22.7 — so either can win the week.
| Week 4 | Bagent | Smith |
|---|---|---|
| Projection | 14.7 | 14.3 |
| Floor · ceiling | 5.8 · 25.6 | 6.0 · 22.7 |
| Rank at position | 23rd | 26th |
| Status | Healthy | Healthy |
Market data last pulled Friday, October 2 at 6:21 AM PDT. Lines refresh every 15 minutes through kickoff.