Should I Start Geno Smith or Jameis Winston in Week 4?

Geno Smith is projected for 14.3 points, 26th among quarterbacks this week. Most weeks he lands between 6.0 and 22.7. This week he plays at CHI; the game total is 43.0 and his team is a 3.3-point underdog. The number is built from live market data across 16 books, in half-PPR scoring, and the lines have moved since they opened. How it adds up: 227.5 passing yards (+9.1), 1.3 passing touchdowns (+5.0), 0.8 interceptions (−1.6), 11.5 rushing yards (+1.2), 0.1 touchdowns (+0.6). Last week (Week 3) he was projected for 13.9 points and scored 26.0.

Jameis Winston is projected for 12.4 points, 32nd among quarterbacks this week. Most weeks he lands between 2.9 and 24.1. This week he plays vs ARI; the game total is 44.5 and his team is a 2.5-point underdog. The number is built from live market data across 17 books, in half-PPR scoring, and the lines have moved since they opened. How it adds up: 205.5 passing yards (+8.2), 1.2 passing touchdowns (+4.9), 0.9 interceptions (−1.7), 0.1 touchdowns (+0.5), 4.5 rushing yards (+0.5). Last week (Week 3) he was projected for 11.1 points and scored 6.1.

Geno Smith is the slight lean. He projects for 14.3 points this week against 12.4 for Jameis Winston. His chance of outscoring Jameis Winston is 56%. Their ranges overlap — Geno Smith usually lands between 6.0 and 22.7, Jameis Winston between 2.9 and 24.1 — so either can win the week.

Market data last pulled Friday, October 2 at 6:21 AM PDT. Lines refresh every 15 minutes through kickoff.