Should I Start Eli Heidenreich or Roschon Johnson in Week 4?

Eli Heidenreich is projected for 0.5 points. Most weeks he lands between 0.1 and 0.9. This week he plays at CLE; the game total is 37.5 and his team is favored by 2.5. He is listed as out — check his status before kickoff. The number is built from live market data across 13 books, with the stats no book prices filled in from his role and Sleeper’s numbers, in half-PPR scoring, and has held steady since the lines opened. How it adds up: 2.7 rushing yards (+0.3).

Roschon Johnson is projected for 0.5 points, 95th among running backs this week. Most weeks he lands between 0.0 and 0.3. This week he plays vs NYJ; the game total is 43.0 and his team is favored by 3.3. The number is built from live market data across 12 books, with the stats no book prices filled in from his role and Sleeper’s numbers, in half-PPR scoring, and has held steady since the lines opened. How it adds up: 0.1 touchdowns (+0.3). Last week (Week 3) he was projected for 0.1 points and did not play.

It is close to a coin flip. He projects for 0.5 points this week against 0.5 for Roschon Johnson. His chance of outscoring Roschon Johnson is 51%. Their ranges overlap — Eli Heidenreich usually lands between 0.1 and 0.9, Roschon Johnson between 0.0 and 0.3 — so either can win the week.

Market data last pulled Friday, October 2 at 6:41 AM PDT. Lines refresh every 15 minutes through kickoff.