Should I Start Eli Heidenreich or Julius Chestnut in Week 4?

Eli Heidenreich is projected for 0.5 points. Most weeks he lands between 0.1 and 0.9. This week he plays at CLE; the game total is 37.5 and his team is favored by 2.5. He is listed as out — check his status before kickoff. The number is built from live market data across 13 books, with the stats no book prices filled in from his role and Sleeper’s numbers, in half-PPR scoring, and has held steady since the lines opened. How it adds up: 2.7 rushing yards (+0.3).

Julius Chestnut is projected for 0.7 points, 93rd among running backs this week. Most weeks he lands between 0.0 and 0.7. This week he plays at BAL; the game total is 42.5 and his team is a 11.5-point underdog. The number is built from live market data across 15 books, with the stats no book prices filled in from his role and Sleeper’s numbers, in half-PPR scoring, and has held steady since the lines opened. How it adds up: 0.1 touchdowns (+0.5). Last week (Week 3) he was projected for 0.0 points and scored 0.0.

It is close to a coin flip. He projects for 0.7 points this week against 0.5 for Eli Heidenreich. His chance of outscoring Eli Heidenreich is 50%. Their ranges overlap — Julius Chestnut usually lands between 0.0 and 0.7, Eli Heidenreich between 0.1 and 0.9 — so either can win the week.

Market data last pulled Friday, October 2 at 6:41 AM PDT. Lines refresh every 15 minutes through kickoff.