Should I Start Deshaun Watson or Tyson Bagent in Week 4?

Deshaun Watson is projected for 14.4 points, 24th among quarterbacks this week. Most weeks he lands between 5.0 and 26.6. This week he plays vs PIT; the game total is 38.0 and his team is a 3.0-point underdog. The number is built from live market data across 16 books, in half-PPR scoring, and the lines have moved since they opened. How it adds up: 184.2 passing yards (+7.4), 1.1 passing touchdowns (+4.4), 28.5 rushing yards (+2.9), 0.8 interceptions (−1.5), 0.2 touchdowns (+1.3). Last week (Week 3) he was projected for 14.5 points and scored 18.3.

Tyson Bagent is projected for 14.6 points, 23rd among quarterbacks this week. Most weeks he lands between 5.0 and 26.8. This week he plays vs NYJ; the game total is 43.0 and his team is favored by 3.5. The number is built from live market data across 15 books, in half-PPR scoring, and the lines have moved since they opened. How it adds up: 199.5 passing yards (+8.0), 1.4 passing touchdowns (+5.7), 13.3 rushing yards (+1.3), 0.7 interceptions (−1.3), 0.2 touchdowns (+0.9). Last week (Week 3) he was projected for 1.6 points and did not play.

It is close to a coin flip. He projects for 14.6 points this week against 14.4 for Deshaun Watson. His chance of outscoring Deshaun Watson is 47%. Their ranges overlap — Tyson Bagent usually lands between 5.0 and 26.8, Deshaun Watson between 5.0 and 26.6 — so either can win the week.

Market data last pulled Thursday, October 1 at 8:49 PM PDT. Lines refresh every 15 minutes through kickoff.