Should I Start Derrick Henry or Jaxon Smith-Njigba in Week 7?

Derrick Henry is projected for 15.7 points. Most weeks he lands between 4.3 and 27.5. This week he plays at BUF; the game total is 53.5 and his team is a 3.5-point underdog. The number is built from live market data across 8 books, with the stats no book prices filled in from his role and Sleeper’s numbers, in half-PPR scoring, and has held steady since the lines opened. How it adds up: 78.5 rushing yards (+7.8), 1.1 touchdowns (+6.3), 9.0 receiving yards (+0.9), 1.2 catches (+0.6). Last week (Week 6) he was projected for 14.0 points and scored 6.5.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is projected for 19.3 points. Most weeks he lands between 5.9 and 34.0. This week he plays vs CHI; the game total is 46.5 and his team is favored by 3.0. The number is built from live market data across 7 books, with the stats no book prices filled in from his role and Sleeper’s numbers, in half-PPR scoring, and has held steady since the lines opened. How it adds up: 105.5 receiving yards (+10.6), 0.8 touchdowns (+4.9), 7.2 catches (+3.6). Last week (Week 6) he was projected for 15.7 points and scored 19.4.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the lean. He projects for 19.3 points this week against 15.7 for Derrick Henry. His chance of outscoring Derrick Henry is 62%. Their ranges overlap — Jaxon Smith-Njigba usually lands between 5.9 and 34.0, Derrick Henry between 4.3 and 27.5 — so either can win the week.

Market data last pulled Monday, October 26 at 8:40 PM PDT. Lines refresh every 15 minutes through kickoff.