Should I Start Case Keenum or Michael Penix in Week 4?

Case Keenum is projected for 13.5 points, 28th among quarterbacks this week. Most weeks he lands between 3.1 and 20.5. This week he plays vs NYJ; the game total is 43.0 and his team is favored by 3.3. No book has posted a line on him yet, so this is our own projection from his role and Sleeper’s numbers. How it adds up: 185.4 passing yards (+7.4), 1.4 passing touchdowns (+5.4), 9.9 rushing yards (+1.0), 0.3 interceptions (−0.6), 0.1 touchdowns (+0.4). Last week (Week 3) he was projected for 9.8 points and did not play.

Michael Penix is projected for 14.4 points, 23rd among quarterbacks this week. Most weeks he lands between 5.9 and 23.6. This week he plays at NO; the game total is 47.5 and his team is a 2.5-point underdog. The number is built from live market data across 16 books, in half-PPR scoring, and the lines have moved since they opened. How it adds up: 224.5 passing yards (+9.0), 1.4 passing touchdowns (+5.5), 0.7 interceptions (−1.3), 0.1 touchdowns (+0.6), 5.5 rushing yards (+0.6). Last week (Week 3) he was projected for 11.3 points and scored 12.0.

Michael Penix is the slight lean. He projects for 14.4 points this week against 13.5 for Case Keenum. His chance of outscoring Case Keenum is 62%. Their ranges overlap — Michael Penix usually lands between 5.9 and 23.6, Case Keenum between 3.1 and 20.5 — so either can win the week.

Market data last pulled Friday, October 2 at 7:21 AM PDT. Lines refresh every 15 minutes through kickoff.