Should I Start Case Keenum or Kirk Cousins in Week 4?

Case Keenum is projected for 13.5 points, 28th among quarterbacks this week. Most weeks he lands between 3.1 and 20.5. This week he plays vs NYJ; the game total is 43.0 and his team is favored by 3.3. No book has posted a line on him yet, so this is our own projection from his role and Sleeper’s numbers. How it adds up: 185.4 passing yards (+7.4), 1.4 passing touchdowns (+5.4), 9.9 rushing yards (+1.0), 0.3 interceptions (−0.6), 0.1 touchdowns (+0.4). Last week (Week 3) he was projected for 9.8 points and did not play.

Kirk Cousins is projected for 13.1 points, 29th among quarterbacks this week. Most weeks he lands between 4.8 and 22.5. This week he plays vs KC; the game total is 47.5 and his team is a 4.5-point underdog. The number is built from live market data across 17 books, in half-PPR scoring, and the lines have moved since they opened. How it adds up: 223.3 passing yards (+8.9), 1.4 passing touchdowns (+5.6), 0.9 interceptions (−1.8), 0.1 touchdowns (+0.3). Last week (Week 3) he was projected for 11.7 points and scored 22.2.

It is close to a coin flip. He projects for 13.5 points this week against 13.1 for Kirk Cousins. His chance of outscoring Kirk Cousins is 43%. Their ranges overlap — Case Keenum usually lands between 3.1 and 20.5, Kirk Cousins between 4.8 and 22.5 — so either can win the week.

Market data last pulled Friday, October 2 at 7:21 AM PDT. Lines refresh every 15 minutes through kickoff.