Should I Start Cam Ward or Jameis Winston in Week 4?

Cam Ward is projected for 11.3 points, 34th among quarterbacks this week. Most weeks he lands between 3.6 and 21.4. This week he plays at BAL; the game total is 42.5 and his team is a 11.5-point underdog. The number is built from live market data across 17 books, in half-PPR scoring, and the lines have moved since they opened. How it adds up: 178.9 passing yards (+7.2), 0.9 passing touchdowns (+3.8), 0.7 interceptions (−1.4), 10.5 rushing yards (+1.1), 0.1 touchdowns (+0.8). Last week (Week 3) he was projected for 11.7 points and scored 9.4.

Jameis Winston is projected for 12.4 points, 32nd among quarterbacks this week. Most weeks he lands between 2.9 and 24.1. This week he plays vs ARI; the game total is 44.5 and his team is a 2.5-point underdog. The number is built from live market data across 17 books, in half-PPR scoring, and the lines have moved since they opened. How it adds up: 205.5 passing yards (+8.2), 1.2 passing touchdowns (+4.9), 0.9 interceptions (−1.7), 0.1 touchdowns (+0.5), 4.5 rushing yards (+0.5). Last week (Week 3) he was projected for 11.1 points and scored 6.1.

Jameis Winston is the slight lean. He projects for 12.4 points this week against 11.3 for Cam Ward. His chance of outscoring Cam Ward is 54%. Their ranges overlap — Jameis Winston usually lands between 2.9 and 24.1, Cam Ward between 3.6 and 21.4 — so either can win the week.

Market data last pulled Friday, October 2 at 6:21 AM PDT. Lines refresh every 15 minutes through kickoff.