Should I Start Cam Ward or Case Keenum in Week 4?

Cam Ward is projected for 11.6 points, 32nd among quarterbacks this week. Most weeks he lands between 3.7 and 21.8. This week he plays at BAL; the game total is 42.5 and his team is a 11.5-point underdog. The number is built from live market data across 17 books, in half-PPR scoring, and the lines have moved since they opened. How it adds up: 183.8 passing yards (+7.4), 0.9 passing touchdowns (+3.8), 0.7 interceptions (−1.4), 11.5 rushing yards (+1.2), 0.1 touchdowns (+0.8). Last week (Week 3) he was projected for 11.7 points and scored 9.4.

Case Keenum is projected for 13.5 points, 28th among quarterbacks this week. Most weeks he lands between 3.1 and 20.5. This week he plays vs NYJ; the game total is 43.0 and his team is favored by 3.3. No book has posted a line on him yet, so this is our own projection from his role and Sleeper’s numbers. How it adds up: 185.4 passing yards (+7.4), 1.4 passing touchdowns (+5.4), 9.9 rushing yards (+1.0), 0.3 interceptions (−0.6), 0.1 touchdowns (+0.4). Last week (Week 3) he was projected for 9.8 points and did not play.

Case Keenum is the slight lean. He projects for 13.5 points this week against 11.6 for Cam Ward. His chance of outscoring Cam Ward is 47%. Their ranges overlap — Case Keenum usually lands between 3.1 and 20.5, Cam Ward between 3.7 and 21.8 — so either can win the week.

Market data last pulled Friday, October 2 at 7:21 AM PDT. Lines refresh every 15 minutes through kickoff.