Should I Start Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr. in Week 7?

Bo Nix is projected for 14.3 points. Most weeks he lands between 5.5 and 23.1. This week he plays vs KC; the game total is 41.0 and his team is a 1.5-point underdog. The number is built from live market data across 2 books, with the stats no book prices filled in from his role and Sleeper’s numbers, in half-PPR scoring, and has held steady since the lines opened. How it adds up: 207.6 passing yards (+8.3), 1.1 passing touchdowns (+4.3), 12.8 rushing yards (+1.3), 0.2 touchdowns (+1.3), 0.5 interceptions (−0.9). Last week (Week 6) he was projected for 12.6 points and scored 4.5.

Michael Penix Jr. is projected for 14.4 points. Most weeks he lands between 4.9 and 23.3. This week he plays at TB; the game total is 46.5 and his team is a 2.0-point underdog. The number is built from live market data across 2 books, with the stats no book prices filled in from his role and Sleeper’s numbers, in half-PPR scoring, and has held steady since the lines opened. How it adds up: 226.6 passing yards (+9.1), 1.4 passing touchdowns (+5.4), 0.5 interceptions (−1.0), 0.1 touchdowns (+0.7), 3.4 rushing yards (+0.3). Last week (Week 6) he was projected for 14.2 points and scored 21.1.

It is close to a coin flip. He projects for 14.4 points this week against 14.3 for Bo Nix. His chance of outscoring Bo Nix is 51%. Their ranges overlap — Michael Penix Jr. usually lands between 4.9 and 23.3, Bo Nix between 5.5 and 23.1 — so either can win the week.

Market data last pulled Monday, October 26 at 8:40 PM PDT. Lines refresh every 15 minutes through kickoff.