Should I Start Baker Mayfield or Geno Smith in Week 7?

Baker Mayfield is projected for 15.2 points. Most weeks he lands between 4.3 and 25.5. This week he plays vs ATL; the game total is 46.5 and his team is favored by 2.0. The number is built from live market data across 2 books, with the stats no book prices filled in from his role and Sleeper’s numbers, in half-PPR scoring, and has held steady since the lines opened. How it adds up: 216.4 passing yards (+8.7), 1.4 passing touchdowns (+5.7), 1.2 interceptions (−2.4), 16.5 rushing yards (+1.7), 0.3 touchdowns (+1.5). Last week (Week 6) he was projected for 0.0 points and did not play.

Geno Smith is projected for 15.7 points. Most weeks he lands between 5.4 and 25.6. This week he plays vs LV; the game total is 45.5 and his team is favored by 0.5. The number is built from live market data across 2 books, with the stats no book prices filled in from his role and Sleeper’s numbers, in half-PPR scoring, and has held steady since the lines opened. How it adds up: 224.7 passing yards (+9.0), 1.6 passing touchdowns (+6.3), 0.5 interceptions (−1.0), 8.5 rushing yards (+0.8), 0.1 touchdowns (+0.6). Last week (Week 6) he was projected for 12.3 points and scored 12.0.

Geno Smith is the slight lean. He projects for 15.7 points this week against 15.2 for Baker Mayfield. His chance of outscoring Baker Mayfield is 52%. Their ranges overlap — Geno Smith usually lands between 5.4 and 25.6, Baker Mayfield between 4.3 and 25.5 — so either can win the week.

Market data last pulled Monday, October 26 at 8:40 PM PDT. Lines refresh every 15 minutes through kickoff.