Should I Start Austin Ekeler or Kaelon Black in Week 4?

Austin Ekeler is projected for 4.1 points. Most weeks he lands between 0.3 and 8.3. This week he plays vs NYG; the game total is 43.5 and his team is favored by 3.5. The number is built from live market data across 1 book, with the stats no book prices filled in from his role and Sleeper’s numbers, in half-PPR scoring, and has held steady since the lines opened. How it adds up: 0.3 touchdowns (+1.7), 12.0 rushing yards (+1.2), 6.6 receiving yards (+0.7), 0.9 catches (+0.5).

Kaelon Black is projected for 3.6 points. Most weeks he lands between 0.5 and 8.2. This week he plays at SEA; the game total is 47.0 and his team is a 3.0-point underdog. The number is built from live market data across 10 books, with the stats no book prices filled in from his role and Sleeper’s numbers, in half-PPR scoring, and has held steady since the lines opened. How it adds up: 0.3 touchdowns (+1.6), 14.5 rushing yards (+1.5), 3.5 receiving yards (+0.3). Last week (Week 3) he was projected for 4.1 points and scored 1.7.

It is close to a coin flip. He projects for 4.1 points this week against 3.6 for Kaelon Black. His chance of outscoring Kaelon Black is 48%. Their ranges overlap — Austin Ekeler usually lands between 0.3 and 8.3, Kaelon Black between 0.5 and 8.2 — so either can win the week.

Market data last pulled Monday, October 5 at 8:41 PM PDT. Lines refresh every 15 minutes through kickoff.