Should I Start Aaron Rodgers or Patrick Mahomes in Week 7?

Aaron Rodgers is projected for 16.0 points. Most weeks he lands between 5.7 and 26.7. This week he plays vs CLE; the game total is 39.5 and his team is favored by 3.5. The number is built from live market data across 2 books, with the stats no book prices filled in from his role and Sleeper’s numbers, in half-PPR scoring, and has held steady since the lines opened. How it adds up: 215.1 passing yards (+8.6), 1.9 passing touchdowns (+7.6), 0.4 interceptions (−0.9), 0.1 touchdowns (+0.4). Last week (Week 6) he was projected for 12.2 points and scored 16.0.

Patrick Mahomes is projected for 15.9 points. Most weeks he lands between 6.0 and 25.2. This week he plays at DEN; the game total is 41.0 and his team is favored by 1.5. The number is built from live market data across 2 books, with the stats no book prices filled in from his role and Sleeper’s numbers, in half-PPR scoring, and has held steady since the lines opened. How it adds up: 224.6 passing yards (+9.0), 1.2 passing touchdowns (+4.9), 18.2 rushing yards (+1.8), 0.2 touchdowns (+1.0), 0.4 interceptions (−0.8). Last week (Week 6) he was projected for 15.9 points and scored 10.5.

It is close to a coin flip. He projects for 16.0 points this week against 15.9 for Patrick Mahomes. His chance of outscoring Patrick Mahomes is 49%. Their ranges overlap — Aaron Rodgers usually lands between 5.7 and 26.7, Patrick Mahomes between 6.0 and 25.2 — so either can win the week.

Market data last pulled Monday, October 26 at 8:40 PM PDT. Lines refresh every 15 minutes through kickoff.