Should I Start Aaron Rodgers or Geno Smith in Week 7?

Aaron Rodgers is projected for 16.0 points. Most weeks he lands between 5.7 and 26.7. This week he plays vs CLE; the game total is 39.5 and his team is favored by 3.5. The number is built from live market data across 2 books, with the stats no book prices filled in from his role and Sleeper’s numbers, in half-PPR scoring, and has held steady since the lines opened. How it adds up: 215.1 passing yards (+8.6), 1.9 passing touchdowns (+7.6), 0.4 interceptions (−0.9), 0.1 touchdowns (+0.4). Last week (Week 6) he was projected for 12.2 points and scored 16.0.

Geno Smith is projected for 15.7 points. Most weeks he lands between 5.4 and 25.6. This week he plays vs LV; the game total is 45.5 and his team is favored by 0.5. The number is built from live market data across 2 books, with the stats no book prices filled in from his role and Sleeper’s numbers, in half-PPR scoring, and has held steady since the lines opened. How it adds up: 224.7 passing yards (+9.0), 1.6 passing touchdowns (+6.3), 0.5 interceptions (−1.0), 8.5 rushing yards (+0.8), 0.1 touchdowns (+0.6). Last week (Week 6) he was projected for 12.3 points and scored 12.0.

It is close to a coin flip. He projects for 16.0 points this week against 15.7 for Geno Smith. His chance of outscoring Geno Smith is 52%. Their ranges overlap — Aaron Rodgers usually lands between 5.7 and 26.7, Geno Smith between 5.4 and 25.6 — so either can win the week.

Market data last pulled Monday, October 26 at 8:40 PM PDT. Lines refresh every 15 minutes through kickoff.